Transport B2B Analysis
Canonical page for the Transport B2B Analysis Power BI report. Decomposes the relationship between back-to-back (B2B) trading and transport cost per kg, and isolates the diesel-surcharge (EXCEPT) component that emerged in Q1 2026.
Purpose
Explain why transport cost per kg moves together with the B2B share — not just whether it does.
Three causal hypotheses are tested on separate pages:
- Routing mix — B2B trades ride longer / more complex lanes than pure outbound, so the weighted €/kg is structurally higher.
- Pricing — on the same lane, B2B rates differ from outbound rates.
- Surcharge exposure — B2B orders absorb EXCEPT (diesel) surcharges differently than outbound.
Data foundation
| Layer | Object | What it provides |
|---|---|---|
| Precalc | fact_trade.transport_cost (S-TRAN / P-TRAN) | Base transport forecast at orderline level |
| Precalc | fact_trade.truck_cost (S-TRUCK / P-TRUCK) | Last-mile forecast |
| Precalc | fact_trade.except_cost (S-EXCEPT / P-EXCEPT) | Diesel / exceptional surcharge forecast — added to the model as part of this analysis |
| Precalc | fact_trade.waiting_cost (S-WAITING / P-WAITING) | Demurrage / wait-time forecast |
| Ledger | dim_logistics.ledger_transport_cost | Actual invoiced transport cost per LF |
| Ledger | dim_logistics.ledger_except_cost | Surcharge component parsed from GL description (Cost code: …-EXCEPT) |
| Ledger | dim_logistics.ledger_waiting_cost | Waiting component parsed from GL description (Cost code: …-WAITING) |
| Ledger | dim_logistics.ledger_transport_base_cost | Residual base-transport component |
B2B is derived from dim_logistics.direction = "Back to back". The fact_trade.is_b2b / b2b_is_matched columns are populated for orderline provenance only — they are not used in the report.
Key measures
| Measure | Definition |
|---|---|
Transport Cost Ledger | Sum of 708x / 70830 / 50100 GL postings (existing) |
Transport Base Cost Ledger | GL rows whose description matches -TRAN (new) |
EXCEPT Cost Ledger | GL rows whose description matches -EXCEPT (new) |
Waiting Cost Ledger | GL rows whose description matches -WAITING (new) |
EXCEPT % of Transport Cost | EXCEPT / Transport Cost Ledger |
Transport Cost / kg (Back to back) | Transport Cost Ledger / kg filtered to direction = "Back to back" |
Transport Cost / kg (Outbound) | Same, filtered to direction = "Outbound" |
B2B Transport Premium / kg | (Back to back) − (Outbound) €/kg difference |
Orderline Calculation LF (Full) | Precalc total = TRAN + TRUCK + EXCEPT + WAITING |
Precalc vs Ledger Variance | Transport Cost Ledger − Orderline Calculation LF (Full) |
Report pages
- Maandelijks — monthly transport cost/kg vs B2B% trend with target reference line.
- Wekelijks — same analysis at weekly granularity.
- Analyse — tests whether B2B is directly cheaper than non-B2B (legacy hypothesis from Daan).
- Kosten opbouw — stacked decomposition of €/kg into base + EXCEPT + waiting, overlaid with B2B%. Separates mix effects from price effects.
- EXCEPT (Iran diesel) — timeline of the EXCEPT surcharge, with EXCEPT/kg split by back-to-back vs outbound direction.
- Precalc vs werkelijk — actual ledger vs precalc variance table. Surfaces surcharge leakage that is not yet modelled in the precalc input rates.
The 2026-03 EXCEPT inflection
Before 2026-03, S-EXCEPT / P-EXCEPT averaged under €200 / month across the combined fleet. From 2026-03 onward the cost group jumps to €20 000+ / month — a ~230× step change — driven by carriers passing through oil-market-related diesel surcharges following the Iran war escalation. The EXCEPT page tracks the timeline; the Precalc-vs-werkelijk page shows whether the precalc input rates have caught up.
Key finding (2026 YTD)
Back-to-back sales transport costs €0.079 / kg, outbound costs €0.048 / kg — a 64% B2B premium. The per-kg gap is structural and not explained by EXCEPT alone: EXCEPT accounts for ~7% of B2B transport cost and ~9% of outbound transport cost in the same window.
This shifts the interpretation of the top-line B2B% vs transport-cost correlation: the correlation is primarily a routing-mix effect, not a pricing effect. EXCEPT is a secondary, accelerating driver that hits both segments.